Incentive Effect and Optimization Path of Fiscal Policy on the Development of Green Industry under the Constraint of "Double Carbon" Target

Abstract

Under the guidance of the "double-carbon" target strategy, fiscal policy plays a key incentive role in promoting the high-quality development of green industry.Based on the panel data China 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from the year of 2020 to 2024, the influence path of green fiscal expenditure and tax incentives on green industry value added and green patent output is tested through fixed effects.The results show that green fiscal expenditure has a significant positive role in promoting green economy and technological innovation, while green tax policy has limited incentive effect in some areas, even has marginal negative effect, which reflects the insufficient matching degree between current tax incentive mechanism and actual behavior of enterprises.Based on the analysis of fiscal expenditure structure, performance mechanism and regional coordination, this paper proposes that we should optimize the allocation structure of fiscal funds, perfect the design of green tax system, and establish a performance-oriented central and local fiscal coordination mechanism.